The U.S. Department of Energy has revised its forecast for Brent oil prices for 2025-2026.

The U.S. Department of Energy has lowered its forecast for Brent oil prices for 2025 from $74.22 to $67.87 per barrel (a decrease of $6 per barrel), according to the monthly forecast data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The forecast for 2026 has been reduced from $68.47 to $61.48 per barrel (a decrease of $7 per barrel).

The EIA expects that commercial oil stocks will begin to rise in the second quarter of 2025, 'earlier than expected', mainly due to increased OPEC+ production and a downward revision of oil demand forecasts.

The report states that global commercial oil stocks are expected to increase by 0.6 million b/d in the second quarter of 2025 and, on average, by 0.7 million b/d in the second half of 2025, with continued accumulation at the same pace in 2026.

However, as noted in the report, OPEC+ members plan to increase production in April 2025, but below their current target plan for the next two years, to limit the growth of global oil stocks and support prices. An increase in production of 0.5 million b/d is planned only for 2026.

Thus, the U.S. Department of Energy believes that the main increase in liquid hydrocarbon supplies will come from countries outside OPEC+ (the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana) - by 1.2 million b/d in 2025 and by 0.7 million b/d in 2026. Overall, production growth of liquid hydrocarbons is projected to be 1.3 million b/d in 2025 and 1.2 million b/d in 2026.

The EIA notes that forecasts are subject to uncertainty due to new trade policies affecting oil demand estimates, especially in Asia, which will remain the main driver of growth. According to analysts, India is expected to increase its liquid hydrocarbon consumption by 0.3 million b/d, while China is expected to increase by 0.2 million b/d in both 2025 and 2026.